Rogues Draw

How to play Rogues Draw

Americans wagered nearly $167 billion on sports in 2025 through regulated sportsbooks, an 11% increase year-over-year, according to data from the American Gaming Association (AGA).

The blurring line between financial investing and gambling has been accelerated by the rise of prediction markets—exchanges offering event contracts that are federally regulated as financial derivatives. U.S. News found that over 40% of active sports bettors now also participate in sports prediction markets.

Financial advisors continue to urge consumers to view sports wagering strictly as entertainment and to only risk funds they can afford to lose.

How to play Rogues Draw

Across the market, operators delivered high double-digit gains compared with Labor Day weekend, which featured a full slate of college football games but no NFL contests. Two operators, DraftKings and Underdog each saw triple-digit growth, delivering weekly increases of 125% and 119%, respectively. Three others, Polymarket, Crypto.com and Novig, saw gains of at least 30%, led by Polymarket with a weekly increase of 46%.

One interesting nugget surrounds weekend figures at Kalshi, where volume on Sunday only surpassed prior daily activity by $34 million, BofA data shows. Typically, Sunday volume for the quarter dwarfs that of College Football Saturdays due to the voracious demand for NFL offerings. BofA analyst Shaun Kelley attributes the irregularity to the possibility that Kalshi is “over indexing” on college sports.

Kelley also cited improvements at Robinhood as a possible factor for the regression at Kalshi. Just before the NFL season, Robinhood took a minority stake in Crypto.com and struck a deal to begin routing NFL contracts to OG.com, the site’s regulated prediction market platform.

About Rogues Draw

I’ll start with a story. Once I had a job I didn’t like. I was an affiliate manager at some jewelry company. I’m not a marketer. I’m a thinker, trader, investor, writer. I was there for two years, marketing. After two years I decided I had to move on because I hated marketing. I wanted to go into finance. So I submitted a financial article somewhere and it was accepted. Then on my birthday in 2012, I decided with my wife I was going to quit and focus on finance. That morning, we went out for a birthday breakfast. We share the same birthday. It makes things easier, more convenient. I was going to show up late to work after breakfast and then announce I would be leaving.

After breakfast, before I got in the office, I get a call from my manager. He tells me the company decided to close up shop suddenly so there is no need for me to show up. Well, that’s convenient. I showed up anyway, said goodbye to my friends there, and I went off home, a burden lifted from my shoulders.

Two years later, I see a post from my friend Robbie Strazynksi of CardPlayerLifestyle, about this guy Bill Beatty looking for a new financial writer for some gambling website called CalvinAyre.com. I said I was interested, didn’t know much about gambling, but I know about finance. I could swing it. Bill gave me a shot, trusted me, and in March 2014, I wrote my first article. Macau stocks were at all time highs, and I wrote that they were about to implode. They did, for the next two years. But not for the reason I thought.