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“A lot of market makers want to go where there’s liquidity,” he said, adding that platform stability and Kalshi’s investment in the financial side of its market-maker relationships were also important. “I think Kalshi is a freight train that’s just kind of running away with it.”
Aldrin monitors product changes, advertising, social media activity, app-store rankings and trading volume across prediction market operators. Patel said the objective is to connect those indicators and show how a product launch supported by advertising affects volume and market share.
Below the largest exchanges, he sees numerous operators competing for relatively small shares of a fast-growing category. “If you get 1% of this market, I think it’s a huge opportunity,” Patel said. “There are a lot of people fighting to get 1%.”
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Playtech on Thursday reported a 10% revenue increase year-on-year in H1 to €425.1 million, driven by what it described as “exceptional growth” for its B2B business in North America.
Revenue from the US and Canada increased 161% year-on-year (or 176% in constant currency) to €56.9 million.
This was due to its partnership with Hard Rock Bet in Florida, and the strength of its games powered by Past Motor Racing (PMR). These are expected to normalise in subsequent quarters.
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One of its investigations concerns a specific globally renowned brand. Madsen says an initial scan identified around 1,600 domains, followed by another roughly 4,500 associated with this operator. That puts the number identified so far at around 6,000, although he believes the actual figure is considerably higher. “I think what we’ve found so far is only a small part of the overall picture,” he says. “I’m almost certain the real number is at least twice as high.”
Euromat’s report has suggested that a core group of 25 offshore operators are generating up to 64% of European traffic to the black market.
Madsen says investigators can also examine how sites appear from different jurisdictions. If a site is presented in a country’s local language, for example, that can indicate that the market is being targeted. The next question is whether the operator has the necessary licence.
